Current opinion

The French on Turkey: More heat than light

by Dr. Demir F. ONGER

On October 3, 2005, after long discussions, and humming and hawing from certain countries, the opening of the negotiations aimed at Turkey’s accession to the European Union took place. This put into effect the decision of the European Council of 17 December 2004.

Today, Turkey wishes for nothing more than for the process to follow the normal course of European Union accession negotiations.

What Turks find offensive is, however, not the threat of eventually being refused membership after such great efforts, but the feeling of unfairness and bias against Turkey produced by some current debates in Europe and France.

Turkey’s EU process

A wholly new era has begun in Turkey. The process will no doubt be long and difficult, with thirty-six chapters of negotiations, involving, not only the Commission and the Presidency, but twenty-five, then twenty-seven, and perhaps even twenty-eight member states.

Turkey knows quite well the technical and economic challenges that she will have to overcome. An informal screening process for meeting the Acquis Communautaire requirements (the common rights and obligations binding EU countries) has been under way since 2000 in eight sub-committees created by the “Turkey–European Union” Association Council, which have presented a realistic assessment of the reforms which Turkey still needs to undertake if she wishes to conform to the Acquis. The “National Programme for the Adoption of the Acquis”, first drawn up in 2001, then revised in 2003, covers 523 pages. With regard to the Copenhagen economic criteria, Turkey is already pursuing a rigorous programme of economic stabilization.

French constitution

By contrast, it is amazing to realise that discussions on the mere principle of Turkey’s membership, particularly in France, are far from over. This is in spite of the clear decision of the European Council, and in spite of the fact that France has just revised its constitution to include a clause requiring that any future Accession Treaty for Turkey be submitted to a referendum in France.

The text of the clause is carefully written in such a way that other current candidates are spared, even those whose candidature was approved by the European Council after that of Turkey. The French now know that they will be required to vote on Turkey when the country completes its accession negotiations.

Burden or boon?

Despite all this, there are certain politicians in France who chose to include Turkey in their campaigning before the referendum on the European Constitution, even though the only connection between this constitution and Turkey’s accession is that both issues have a bearing on the European Union!

One could almost believe that the only live issue for debate on the European Union in France is the old argument concerning Turkey, although Turkey is not yet even a member of the Union. Turkey is responsible neither for the economic and social woes which are attributed, often wrongly, to the European Union, nor for the benefits which people have a way of overlooking. Indeed, if Turkey can be said to have any influence on the economic situation of France, it is a positive one, as Turkey has a deficit of almost 2,000 million Euros in its trade with France. That represents, to give a random example by way of comparison, four to five times the total budget of a regional council of a département like the Vendée.

Insulting tone

Some commentators have quite rightly pointed out how insulting this debate about Turkey’s membership is to the Turks. Some of the terms used about Turkey have tried the patience even of the most tolerant of Turkish citizens. One French MEP talks of “sending Ankara packing” in one of the big national papers, with no-one asking him to temper his language.

Turks are used to prejudice, but they are still dismayed by such popularist methods, and their adoption by people who should be the elite of this friendly country. It is a serious error, an exploitation of fear of “the other”, and ever-increasing numbers of politicians from the mainstream parties are falling into it. “The other” is – inexplicably – today personified by Turks, although neither the number of Turks in France, nor their historical and cultural differences with French people, would seem to justify such enmity.

Unrecognised potential

Turkey has an economic potential which is only recently being recognised: it is one of the twenty leading world economies, its annual growth rate reached 9.9% in 2004, it has a trade volume of 150,000 million Euros, it is the sixth largest client, and the seventh largest supplier of the EU. Sustained growth in Turkey is to the benefit of both sides. With a young population, keen both to produce and to consume, a market which is still open to practically all categories of consumer goods, and a long tradition of free enterprise, Turkey offers great opportunities for investment.

It is possible for all this potential to be channelled in the right direction. This is particularly so if investors, both Turks and foreigners, are able to predict a clear future for Turkey at the heart of the European Union. In any case, by the time Turkey reaches the end of its accession process, it will have achieved an economic level which will make it one of the locomotives of the European economy. According to recent estimates of the OECD, Turkey will have risen to half the per capita income of the Europe of Fifteen. It will have put in place reforms to the agricultural sector, social issues, the environment, and all the other areas covered by the Acquis which are necessary for Turkey to be compatible with the European Union. The country will also have introduced thorough democratic reforms, and will have reinforced its role as a stabilizing factor in the region.

Business thinking

French businesses, which are among the most important foreign investors in Turkey, are already aware of the potential. Economic and commercial relations between France and Turkey are continuing to grow as never before. In 2004 the total trade volume between the two countries broke a new record for the second year in a row, rising to more than 7,200 million Euros. The car industry makes up some 30% of this trade, with both exports and imports. The number of French companies investing in Turkey rose from fifteen in 1985 to two hundred and twenty-seven in 2002.

Here are some additional facts and figures: In global terms, Turkey is the sixth largest producer of cement, the second largest producer of plate glass, the sixth largest exporter of clothing. In Europe, Turkey is the biggest producer of chemical fertilizer, the seventh largest producer of iron and steel, the biggest manufacturer of televisions (with nearly 20 million produced in 2004), the sixth largest producer of refrigerators, and the seventh largest manufacturer in the car industry.

According to the statistics of the Turkish Industrialists’ and Businessmen’s Association (TÜSİAD) there are around thirty million subscribers to mobile telephones (September 2003), and more than nine million users of the internet. There are thirty television channels broadcasting nationally, and 260 on the local level.

Political gains

The political advantages of Turkey joining the Union should be clear to everyone, especially to the French public. Turkey is a strong country which is influential in its region. It could contribute greatly to an independent Europe, which would then be capable of being a force for peace in the world of tomorrow. Turkey has a powerful and modern army, and it has experience in all the areas which border upon Europe. These are areas which are certainly troubled, but dealing with them is an indispensable part of the foreign policies of the member states of the EU, including France. Turkey within the Union will be able to play a very important part in assuring security and stability along the edges of the continent.

Finally, the point should be made that, if the intention is truly to debate the accession of Turkey, certainly one of the key questions regarding the future of the European Union, it would be more logical to focus on this debate at the time when the question really arises – in other words, towards the end of the process of the accession negotiations. If we choose to argue about it now, we argue without being in possession of all the facts, as none of us knows what the world, the European Union, and Turkey will be like in ten years time. There is every reason to believe that we live at a period in history characterised by rapid change in global forces.